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京東氣勢如虹是否能爬頭取代阿里巴巴?

阿里巴巴(SEHK:9988)及京東(SEHK:9618),那隻更值得投資? – JD.com shares

新經濟產業在疫情期間鋒芒畢露,消費力由線下轉移至線上,電商更是重點受惠板塊之一,最近阿里巴巴(SEHK:9988)及京東(SEHK:9618)均公布最新季度業績,那隻更值得投資?

京東用戶增幅更勝阿里

電商模式的吸引之處在於經營效能高,線下渠道接待客戶的能力有限,但線上渠道可以24/7兼擺脫地理限制來與平台用戶互動。電商平台的用戶基數越大,交易量擴張速度越快,平台所能賺取的佣金及服務收入增幅自然更強。阿里巴巴的用戶基數為中國市場第一,過去持續遙遙領先排名僅次其後的京東。而最新季度排名依舊,阿里巴巴年度活躍消費者約為7.42億,京東則只有約4.17億。不過,阿里巴巴實現的同比增長僅為約10%,而京東則有近30%增長。雖然基數較細的京東更容易實現可觀增長,但展望長線,其與阿里巴巴的差距持續收窄是毫無懸念。

京東業績增長力更強

京東的用戶基數增速較阿里巴巴優勝,帶動集團業績保持高速增長。在今年6月份季度,京東的經營利潤按年增長逾100%至50億元(人民幣.下同),阿里巴巴的經營利潤則為347億元,同比增長僅超過40%。除基數細造成增長更強,京東的強勁業績增長更可歸因於旗下自營零售業務的規模經濟效益持續加強,因為京東自營零售業務的銷售邊際相當低,而疫市期間市場需求大增,京東成功實現可觀的「薄利多銷」,經營成本被顯著增加的邊際貢獻攤開,盈利能力有所加強。

阿里巴巴模式仍有優勢

雖然京東在疫市的增長表現勝於阿里巴巴,但阿里巴巴的業務優勢仍有其吸引之處。京東的自營零售業務的定價能力受限於市場競爭,邊際難以顯著提升,但阿里巴巴則主要經營平台業務,包括以零散賣家為主的「淘寶」,及以品牌零售商為主的「天貓」,核心收益來源是服務收入,邊際貢獻因而較高。在6月底止,京東的經調整經營利潤率按年上升0.7個百分點至2.8%,增幅在比例上很顯著,但水平上仍大幅落後於阿里巴巴的23%。不過,隨著京東基數擴大,規模經濟效益持續加強將可收窄距離,但阿里巴巴作為平台營運者所承擔的業務風險則較低。

結語

京東在今年第二季增長勢頭更勝阿里巴巴,但經營模式上阿里巴巴的盈利能力及業務穩定性較高。

編輯:Cyrus

延伸閱讀

本文所提供的信息僅供一般參考之用,並不構成任何個人化的投資勸誘或建議。作者Alvin Yu沒持有以上提及的股票。

The Motley Fool Hong Kong Limited(www.fool.hk) 2020

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