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信達暢銷藥國際化將成今年虧轉盈的引擎?

信達生物(SEHK:1801)與禮來製藥達成協議。禮來相金先惠支付2億美元的首付款,相信今年信達轉虧為盈近在眼前。 –

信達生物(SEHK:1801)宣布與禮來製藥達成擴大達伯舒授權許可協議至內地以外的地區,信達將可收取2億美元的首付款,並有資格獲得最多8.25億美元的商業化里程碑付款,以及雙位數百分點的提成。信達去年虧損17億元人民幣,但今年料將錄得2億美元的首付款。由此估計,今年信達有機會成功虧轉盈。

達伯舒銷售表現可望勝去年

信達於2018年10月31日掛牌,去年3月推出首隻單抗免疫腫瘤藥達伯舒,達伯舒去年銷售額達10億元(人民幣‧下同),相當於信達同期營業額10.5億元的97%。今年首季及第2季分別錄得4億元及5億元銷售額。倘若今年第3及第4季銷售各維持5億元水平,達伯舒今年銷售額便可達19億元,遠超過去年。

可獲禮來的2億美元首付款

不過,今年信達獲得禮來的2億美元首付款,加上來自內地銷售的達伯舒19億元,估計今年營業額可達32.8億元人民幣,較去年的10.5億元營業額上升212%。

推廣開支或見頂

去年信達虧損17億元,今年能否虧轉盈,除了因為禮來的首付款及達伯舒在內地的銷售額外,並繫於直接銷售及市場推廣開支及合作安排項下的付款。去年信達建立推廣團隊,以支持伯達舒商業化,故直接銷售及市場推廣開支急升至6.9億元。但推廣團隊人數已經達數百人,如團隊人數不再擴大,則相關開支可望見頂。

另外,去年合作協議項下的付款接近5億元,隨著達伯舒在內地受到醫生廣納採用,相信今年這部分開支進一步上升。惟拉上補下,今年信達要轉虧為盈仍有希望。

信達成為10倍股的關鍵

信達於8月18日公布與禮來製藥達成協議的消息後,股價由當日收市價49.6港元持續上升,並突破55元關,市值亦增至逾75億元,惟尚未完全反映2億美元的首付款及最多8.25億美元的里程碑收費,亦未反映在內地以外地區的銷售分成,故料這方面合作的成果將會是主宰信達股價能否成功10倍股的關鍵。

編輯:Yan

延伸閱讀

本文所提供的信息僅供一般參考之用,並不構成任何個人化的投資勸誘或建議。作者Steven Cheung持有信達生物(SEHK:1801)。

The Motley Fool Hong Kong Limited(www.fool.hk) 2020

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