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兩隻疫後翻身無期的香港龍頭股

這兩隻龍頭股的復甦前景黯淡,不宜買入。 –

新冠肺炎疫情為舊經濟產業帶來衝擊,航空業持續陷入嚴寒,低息環境不利銀行賺息差,不少舊經濟股在疫市中持續弱勢,為長線投資者帶來機會,把握疫市時機買入質素較佳的企業。不過,以下兩間上市公司雖有龍頭地位,但疫後復甦前景黯淡,不宜沾手。

1. 匯豐控股

匯豐控股(SEHK5)是香港上市的銀行中規模最龐大的跨國銀行之一,更是本地領先銀行——恒生(SEHK11)的大股東。然而,疫市為銀行業帶來沉重打擊,匯豐在逆風中表現不振,疫後增長計劃更面臨重重挑戰。全球央行減息應對疫情衝擊的環境下,匯豐賺息差的能力被削弱,上半年淨利息收益減少近5%,而疫情中信貸資產質素下降,集團的預期信貸損失及減值準備變動按年增加約500%

不過,這兩個負面因素幾乎是全球銀行業都正面對的挑戰,業務板圖廣闊的匯豐受影響是無可避免的。然而,匯豐的復甦能力或會落後同業,近年集團擬將資源集中於亞洲市場,遺憾的是中國政治局勢持續緊張,美國金融制裁、華為事件、英國對國安法立場等眾多因素均為匯豐進攻中國增長市場的策略帶來不確定性,而這卻是匯豐目前翻身的唯一可行計劃。疫市衝擊未停,翻身計劃遇阻,匯豐的增長前景黯淡,不宜沾手。

2. 國泰航空

國泰航空(SEHK293)的核心業務在疫市所受的打擊可算是災難級,旅遊業停頓,各地出入境限制收緊,國泰受打擊相當沉重。最近集團正進行供股,以應付核心業務停頓下營運開支持續造成的現金流出,此外更獲得港府土地基金273億元的融資方案。雖然國泰在疫市面臨的威脅屬於短中期,等到疫後旅遊及航空產業復甦,國泰的財務狀況有望改善。

不過,即使疫後復甦,國泰充其量只能維持「持續營運」,其為股東製造價值的能力或已被削弱。這是因為淨利潤率偏低屬行業現象,而國泰雖有龍頭地位,但航空競爭激烈或會造成資產利用率未能維持在高水平,業務回報因而變得不吸引。競爭激烈的情況不見得會在疫後緩和,淨利潤率偏低的營運商容易因外在因素變動而陷入困境,投資價值不吸引。

結語

弱勢的舊經濟產業有望在疫後顯著反彈,惟以上兩隻龍頭股的業務質素不吸引,不宜買入

延伸閱讀

本文所提供的信息僅供一般參考之用,並不構成任何個人化的投資勸誘或建議。作者 Alvin Yu 沒持有以上提及的股票。

The Motley Fool Hong Kong Limited(www.fool.hk) 2020

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