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增長前景不明 買公用股收息仍可取?

公用股業績普遍錄得倒退,投資部署需要變通嗎? –

公用事業終端需求穩定,營運商派息能力可靠,相信是不少散戶的收息之選。然而,最近多間公用事業上市公司公布的中期業績均錄得了頗顯著的溢利倒退,投資部署需要變通嗎?

規管收緊成大趨勢

多間公用企業的業績出現倒退,核心原因是期內踏入新規管期的不少公用項目均出現准許回報被下調的情況。以長江基建(SEHK1038)為例,集團旗下英國水務項目——NorthumbrianWater在今年41日起要按照大幅下調後的准許回報來營運,而展望中期集團仍有更多項目面臨同樣威脅。疫情導致全球市場基準利率普遍下降,准許回報因而受壓。

此外,中電(SEHK2)旗下由Energy Australia所組成澳洲業務更在去年開始面臨重大的市場監管制度轉變,競爭環境出現重大不確定性,集團能源零售分部在今年上半年仍然表現不振。

增長抵消不利影響

面對規管收緊的風險,營運商基本上是沒有抵抗力的。要抵消准許回報率下降的影響,尋求增長是重要出路。若項目有龐大的資本再投資空間,營運商可以透過資產投資來擴大准許回報的計算基礎,例如港燈(SEHK2638)及中電香港分部在去年均要按照新一份協議來營運,造成去年溢利錄得顯著跌幅,但踏入2020年兩電各自執行的資產投資計劃持續取得進展,今年上半年已錄得溢利增長。

再生能源或成出路

長江基建及中電等財力雄厚的公用企業過去積極於收購及投資新項目來推動增長。局勢不穩下,受惠於潔淨能源大趨勢的可再生能源項目成為重要出路,中電在去年6月就有風場投入營運,而長江基建在今年5月完成建造澳洲目前最大型混能可再生微電網。再生能源項目普遍屬於當地政府發展意欲較高的範疇,中期內面臨規管收緊的威脅遠較傳統能源項目為低。

那隻公用股可投資收息?

以上提到的多隻近期公布業績的公用股各有優劣之處。若追求穩定收入,現時協議期較長且業務模式最簡單的港燈有較高確定性,惟分派長線增長力有限。若風險胃納較大,長江基建及中電面臨的規管不確定性較大,前者仍有多個項目將在短期內踏入新規管期,而後者的澳洲業務則面臨新監管機制再度調整的不確定性,但兩者在尋求增長的積極性更勝於港燈。

延伸閱讀

本文所提供的信息僅供一般參考之用,並不構成任何個人化的投資勸誘或建議。作者 Alvin Yu 沒持有以上提及的股票。

The Motley Fool Hong Kong Limited(www.fool.hk) 2020

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