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客運收益挫七成 國泰起死回生靠貨運?

國泰航空(SEHK:293)績後急升超過一成,有何因素刺激股價走勢? –

香港旗艦航空公司——國泰航空(SEHK:293)在疫市中陷入財困,早前落實供股計劃兼獲港府提供融資紓困。國泰航空公布最新業績,有何亮點?值得投資嗎?

中期錄鉅額虧損

新冠肺炎疫情為航空業帶來猛烈逆風,旅遊意欲下降,邊境管制收緊,航空公司的客運業務踏入嚴寒,國泰作為香港航空業龍頭難以獨善其身。面對強烈逆風,集團的客運服務收益按年下跌約70.5%至110.6億元(港元·下同)。單論國泰航空及國泰港龍航空,兩大航空品牌期內客運量按年減少76%,客運收益則錄得72.2%同比跌幅。

貨運業務逆市增長

然而,集團的總收益僅較去年同期下跌了48.3%,這主要可歸因於貨運業務在疫市錄得增長,抵消了客運業務的部分不利影響。期內,集團的貨運服務按年增加10.4%至126.9億元,貢獻比起過去一直是核心收入來源的客運業務更要高。

貨運服務表現在疫市展示強勁防守力,原因是醫療相關的貨運需求大增,包括藥品相關訂單、及醫療設備如口罩、消毒搓手液、及個人防護用品等。貨運供求失衡下,國泰航空及國泰港龍航空的貨物收益率大幅增加44.1%。集團更積極捕捉疫市貨運增長趨勢,在期內首次利用波音777-300ER型客機的客艙運載貨物來增加飛機可載貨量,更透過附屬公司華民航空增加可載貨量。

長線投資價值低

國泰要渡過今次疫情難關基本上問題不大,最近完成的390億元資本重組計劃已為集團帶來龐大的現金儲備。然而,即使疫情影響緩和,國泰的投資價值依然不吸引。航空公司的盈利能力普遍較低,即使是龍頭航空公司國泰在2019上半年的利潤率亦只得2.5%,當營運環境出現轉變,航空公司容易錄得鉅額虧損,如國泰今年上半年的利潤率為−35.7%。對於大眾消費者而言,航空服務的獨特性不高,這導致航空公司難以提價,利潤率偏低成為常態,這情況在疫後亦無望改善。

結語

雖然貨運業務成為國泰逆市增長的動力,但整體表現依然疲弱。疫後競爭環境未有大轉變下,低邊際的情況將會持續,國泰的長線業務確定性低,投資價值不吸引。

延伸閱讀

本文所提供的信息僅供一般參考之用,並不構成任何個人化的投資勸誘或建議。作者Alvin Yu沒持有以上提及的股票。

The Motley Fool Hong Kong Limited(www.fool.hk) 2020

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