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弱勢股中捕捉倍升機遇 三大因素友邦可重回強勢

友邦保險(SEHK:1299)由年初至今已跌逾一成,短期弱勢表現或是長線投資者的買入良機。 –

疫情為實體經濟帶來衝擊,不少舊經濟產業面臨重大挑戰,股價持續積弱。然而,疫情因素屬短中期,優質資產在長線基本面未必會受損。友邦保險(SEHK1299)由年初至今已跌逾一成,有望為長線投資者帶來吸納機會。

疫情影響屬短中期

友邦在疫情表現弱勢,主要原因是期內疫情導致銷售活動受阻。防疫措施限制人流聚集,社交距離意識普及,面對面銷售活動面臨重大阻礙。代理團隊對於保險產品,尤其定位優質的高定價產品的銷售表現有重要的貢獻,面對面模式受阻下高端保障產品,以及保費金額較大的銷售佔比將會下跌,不利集團的新業務價值增長,以及新業務利潤率表現。然而,疫情只屬於短中期因素,疫後保險需求釋放,銷售活動重振是勢在必行。

內需振興保險需求

疫情導致銷售活動降溫,但這並不等於保險需求減少。保險產品的生命周期長,涵蓋生老病死多個人生必經階段,而人口基數是保險需求的重要貢獻因素。人口越多,需求越大,保險公司的增長空間越吸引。此外,人均收入水平的影響同樣重要,可支配收入越高,可用於保險消費的預算越高,有利高定價保險產品需求增長。友邦的業務板圖覆蓋多個亞太區增長市場,包括中國、東南亞、印度等。這些市場的人口基數大,保險滲透度低,而且經濟增速更勝歐美等成熟地區,這些條件均有利保險產業增長,享有品牌商譽的友邦受惠更顯著。

友邦品牌實力強勁

疫情只是限制了銷售代理接觸客戶的渠道運作,與友邦自身業務定位沒有直接影響。在過去十年間,友邦的新業務價值實現了22.5%複式增長,稅後營運溢利則錄得約13%增速。過去連年業績增速強勁,反映友邦品牌實力強勁。值得注意的是,友邦的業務價值利潤率持續高企,尤其增長潛力較龐大的中國市場,去年利潤率更有93.5%,反映友邦品牌對高購買力的顧客的吸引力強勁。疫情受控後,以上提到的保險需求將會釋放,產業將可重上增長軌道,友邦作為業務遍佈亞太區增長市場的強勁品牌的復甦確定性高。

結語

儘管肺炎疫情為友邦業務帶來衝擊,造成股價持續弱勢,但友邦復甦確定性高,短期弱勢表現或是長線投資者吸納良機。

延伸閱讀

本文所提供的信息僅供一般參考之用,並不構成任何個人化的投資勸誘或建議。作者 Alvin Yu 沒持有以上提及的股票。

The Motley Fool Hong Kong Limited(www.fool.hk) 2020

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