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恒生銀行的危與機

恒生銀行(SEHK:11)公布2020年中期業績反映有何危與機? –

本地銀行龍頭——恒生銀行(SEHK11)公布2020年中期業績,期內面臨肺炎疫情帶來的多重挑戰,到底恒生表現如何?以下逐一拆解:

疫市中業績倒退

恒生銀行在上半年面臨多重衝擊,疫情導致分行營運時間縮減,加上市場基準利率偏低,香港經濟下行更令信貸風險大增。面對多重營運壓力,恒生銀行的營業收入淨額按年下跌 20% 174億元(港元·下同),營業溢利則錄得28%同比跌幅降至111億元,股東應佔溢利更大跌33%91億元。為應對疫情發展的不確定性,恒生銀行的第二次中期股息為每股0.8元,較去年同期大減43%

兩大收入來源受挫

銀行核心收益來源是淨息差,但疫情中全球央行減息,銀行業盈利能力受損,剛公布業績的幾間大型跨國銀行,如恒生的大股東匯豐(SEHK5)均錄得淨利息收入倒退,恒生銀行亦不例外。期內恒生銀行的淨利息收益率下降25個基點至1.96%,導致集團的淨利息收入按年下跌7%148億元,抵消期內資產基礎擴張的正面影響。

非信貸資產的回報在疫市中同樣受挫。恒生銀行的淨服務費收入下跌至32億元,同比跌幅為9%,當中證券服務收入錄得36%強勁增長,但其餘多個收入來源受疫市影響顯著,例如消費不振造成信用卡服務費收入下跌 26%

信貸資產質素下降

期內企業營運壓力增加,本地失業率上升,信貸資產質素下降進一步削弱恒生銀行的盈利能力。恒生銀行的預期信貸損失變動及其他信貸減值提撥較去年同期增加12.5億元至17.6億元,同比增幅為245%,相對近期公布業績的同業明顯為低。總減值貸款較去年底增加46%30億元,相對總客戶貸款比例僅為0.32%,可見信貸資產組合質素穩健

然而,財務槓桿倍大信貸資產質素影響,恒生銀行的營業收入淨額按年跌14%,扣除預期信貸損失變動及減值提撥後,收入淨額跌幅擴至20%

結語

恒生銀行在期內面臨肺炎疫情帶來的行業逆風,業績錄得倒退在所難免,但營運數據仍較最近公布業績的同業穩定,尤其成本效益比率依然是香港銀行界最低之一。然而,疫情影響難以預測,投資者買入恒生收息亦不宜過度進取。在恒生與匯豐相比下,恒生相信回復派息的能力較高,而且前景相對明確,是明顯較佳的選擇。

延伸閱讀

本文所提供的信息僅供一般參考之用,並不構成任何個人化的投資勸誘或建議。作者 Alvin Yu 沒持有以上提及的股票。

The Motley Fool Hong Kong Limited(www.fool.hk) 2020

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