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消費股獲資金狂捧 周黑鴨、蒙牛要買入?

市場仍有資金追捧內需股,繼啤酒股大升後,還有哪些股份可留意? –

業務及市場主打內地的內需股,受外圍及疫情因素影響較少。飲食股近期股價仍有抗跌力,早前以華潤啤酒(SEHK:291)和青島啤酒(SEHK:168)為主的啤酒股走勢凌厲,近期則有周黑鴨(SEHK:1458)和蒙牛乳業(SEHK:2319)的股價表現堅挺。

周黑鴨發盈警無礙升勢?

周黑鴨早前發盈警,主因是疫情影響重大(尤其湖北省),以及上半年各防疫措施及對消費場所的限制,令公司中期淨虧損達4200萬元(人民幣.下同)至5000萬元。期間因而共有1000間門店暫停營業。到業績實質符盈警指示,中期虧損為4219萬元。

不過,公司表示,目前華中地區的工廠活動已重啟,營運狀況持續改善,大部分零售店已重新開業,惟疫情仍存在不確定性,經濟活動放緩,經營恢復需時,門店客流恢復也低於預期。公司股價在盈警後顯著上升,過去一個月股價累升27%,過去三個月更升95%。

本月初,世界品牌實驗室發布2020年「中國500最具價值品牌」中,周黑鴨以97億元的品牌價值首次登榜。不可否認的是,滷味食品市場的行業競爭以及日益火熱的電商銷售模式,都為周黑鴨帶來利潤增長的壓力亦是機會。借助下半年的內需回暖,以及暑期、在家辦公等推動,實現盈利扭轉,利好股價發展。

蒙牛對外併購受阻

另外,據報道指,蒙牛乳業擬收購澳洲乳業公司「Lion Dairy & Drinks Pty Ltd」或會遭到澳洲政府的反對,交易涉及6億澳元,但此收購處於中澳關係緊張升溫的背景下,也為蒙牛日後海外收購帶來一層憂慮。蒙牛於8月25日發公告正式終止交易。

不過,蒙牛於7月底認購中國聖牧(SEHK:1432)股份,成為後者單一最大股東(持股量17.8%),刺激後者股價上升的同時,乳業市場整合,利好龍頭蒙牛日後發展。

雖然蒙牛早前亦發盈警,料上半年盈利跌45%至60%,但資本市場似乎消化有關負面因素,盈警公布至今股價仍升13%。而競爭對手伊利(SESH:600887)近期也有新動作,入股中地乳液(SEHK:1492),成為後者第二大股東。蒙牛、伊利同時爭奪原奶市場,積極佈局低溫奶市場,有望憑藉龍頭地位和市佔率,各自分得一羹。蒙牛將於今日公布業績,值得留意。

投資結語

周黑鴨、蒙牛兩隻內需股各有千秋,蒙牛於內地乳品市場已執牛耳,如果蒙牛股價走勢於未來出現回軟,對於長線投資帶來吸納機會。至於周黑鴨於內地有品牌效應,可望受惠年內消費重納正軌,惟估值偏高,宜吼低位作收集部署。

編輯:Cyrus Li

延伸閱讀

本文所提供的信息僅供一般參考之用,並不構成任何個人化的投資勸誘或建議。作者Twinkle Zhou沒持有以上提及的股票。

The Motley Fool Hong Kong Limited(www.fool.hk) 2020

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