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豪華車疫市銷情勁 比併兩大經銷股誰勝出?

新冠肺炎疫情之下,內地汽車經銷股上半年盈利不跌反升,行內龍頭中升控股(SEHK:881)及美東汽車(SEHK:1268)誰是更好選擇? –

今年上半年內地疫情重創經濟,原以為屬奢侈品消費的豪華汽車經銷商生意會大受打擊,豈料中升控股(SEHK:881)及美東汽車(SEHK:1268)兩家公司的中期盈利不跌反升,在下半年經濟復甦下,何者更應吸納?

中升及美東均是經銷中高端汽車品牌的4S店,即銷售汽車(Sell)、零件(Spare Part)、售後服務(Service)和信息回饋(Survey),但兩者的品牌組合不同,中升銷售平治(奔馳)、凌志(雷克薩斯 、Lexus)及奧迪(Audi)等豪華汽車品牌,以及豐田、日產、本田及通用(NYSE:GM)等中高檔汽車品牌。美東則銷售保時捷、寶馬、凌志等豪華汽車品牌,以及豐田和現代等中檔車。

1.美東中期業績秤先

美東上半年營業額上升23.5%至84.48億元(人民幣•下同),股東應佔溢利為3億元,按年升27.58%,每股盈利25.72分。中升上半年營業額增長1.4%至582.03億元,股東應佔溢利為22.92億元,按年升10.06%,每股盈利1.009元。兩者營業額分別有88.6%及85.5%是來自汽車銷售。

2.美東盈利增長前景較佳

業務前景方面,兩家公司盈利均受惠旗下豪華汽車品牌銷情理想帶動。美東半年售出23691輛新乘用車,銷售量按年增加7.9%,其中豪華品牌佔新乘用車銷售收益達到約84.3%。中升半年銷售19.72萬輛,同比下降7.8%,但豪華品牌銷量達到11.16萬輛,同比增加5.7%,佔總銷量56.6%,比率按年大增。

在疫情之下,豪華汽車品牌銷售未見放緩,反而下半年隨經濟復甦,加上去年第3季排放標準有所改變,豪華品牌汽車銷售基數較低,豪華車市道預期將會更好。由於預期盈利增長繼續來自豪華汽車銷售,所以銷售豪華車比率較高的美東,盈利增長前景料可更為樂觀。

3.美東資本負債比率大幅改善

在庫存周轉天數方面,美東較2019年底的17天進一步降至 12天,遠遠拋離從32天改善到29.7天的中升,可見,美東的變現速度較快,資金運用效率較好。美東上半年資本負債比率為35.8%,較去年的65%大幅改善,並較中升的55.1%為佳。

4.美東派息勝中升

派息方面,美東中期每股盈利25.72分,派息14.51分,同比升約138%,派息比率56.4%,與去年全年派息比率相若。以8月21日收市價計,股息率1.4厘。至於中升不派中期息,公司2017至2019財年的派息比率均為20%,股息率不足1厘。雖然兩者均不屬高息,但美東略微優勝,且較願意與股東分享盈利。

5.中升估值較低惟美東前景較佳

最後是估值方面,中升目前市盈率為21.8倍,今年預測市盈率為19.5倍;較美東目前50倍及預測39倍的市盈率為高,因此中升相對抵買,但因美東增長前景較佳,加上其他基本面均較優勝,投資者應揀美東。

編輯: Yan

延伸閱讀

本文所提供的信息僅供一般參考之用,並不構成任何個人化的投資勸誘或建議。作者 Carlos Hie沒持有以上提及的股票。

The Motley Fool Hong Kong Limited(www.fool.hk) 2020

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