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買收租股收息必要知的一點:勿被業績虧損嚇怕

最近公布的多隻收租股均錄得重大虧損,但投資者不必過於憂慮。為什麼? –

房地產過去一直是香港的長青產業,不少本地投資者都鍾情於投資收租股收息,例如房產信託,以及物業投資公司。然而,去年下半年的社會運動,以及今年爆發的肺炎疫情為本地零售業帶來衝擊,寫字樓物業同樣面臨續租壓力。最近公布的多隻收租股均錄得重大虧損,但投資者不必過於憂慮。

重大虧損成常態

投資物業的估值普遍取決於租金收入,以及資本化率。租金收入下跌,及資本化利率上升會對估值造成負面影響。疫情中不少零售物業租戶提早落閘,生意表現差,續租意欲低,業主的加租能力被顯著削弱,部分更要以租金寬免、減租來避免大量租戶流失。這為投資物業的租金收入帶來負面影響。

面對疫情持續反彈,零售前景不明朗,政局不穩下經濟下行風險大增,估值用的資本化率上升為物業估值帶來顯著的減值影響。以領展(SEHK823)為例,今年3月底適用於零售物業的資本化率由去年的3%-4.2%提升至3.1%4.5%,造成期內基金錄得近240億港元的投資物業減值虧損,相對去年同期的123億港元物業升值溢利。

與領展同樣屬防守型房託的置富(SEHK778),收租為主要業務的希慎(SEHK14),擁有龐大物業組合的長實(SEHK1113)均在最近公布的中期業績錄得重大虧損。

現金流未必有影響

不過,物業公平值變動不會影響投資物業的現金流。事實上以上提到的多間公司的租賃組合在疫市仍保持著高水平租用率,只是部分投資物業的續租租金調整不理想。然而,這些公司所面臨的威脅主要來自肺炎疫情的衝擊,而疫情影響只屬於中期。只要疫後零售重振,經濟活動復甦,租賃表現好轉的確定性高,尤其領展(SEHK823)、置富(SEHK778)的民生商場防守力高,疫後復甦有望領先其他對旅客消費有較高依賴的零售物業。等到租賃表現回復平常,估值所涉及的租金收入表現轉趨樂觀,資本化率重新降低至疫前水平,期內所錄得的物業虧損有望復原。

結語

長線投資收租股,目的是享受長線現金流,疫市影響屬短中期,而期內普遍收租股都未有出現重大續租災難,投資者的現金回報依然穩定。物業估值的波動雖造成鉅額虧蝕,但疫後租賃表現靠穩後有望復原,而且長線增值潛力依然吸引。

延伸閱讀

本文所提供的信息僅供一般參考之用,並不構成任何個人化的投資勸誘或建議。作者 Alvin Yu 沒持有以上提及的股票。

The Motley Fool Hong Kong Limited(www.fool.hk) 2020

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