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退潮下中電、港燈是否真收息好股?

中電控股(SEHK:2)及港燈-SS(SEHK:2638)近期公布了符合預期中期業績,無風無浪派息維持,兩電是否仍是收息股好選擇? –

散戶最受愛的本地收息股中電控股SEHK:2)及港燈-SSSEHK:2638)剛公布了中期業績,兩間公司的業績符合預期,盈利水平未見大走樣,雖然只保持派息未有大增,已好過匯控(SEHK:5)不派息或恒生(SEHK:11減中期息32%疫情條,持有兩隻公共股的投資者算可喜可賀

「股神」巴菲特曾說過只有退潮的時候,你才知道誰在裸泳中電及港燈有實力收息股值得長線持有?

1.中電受累澳洲業務

中電上半年整體營運盈利升12%61.29億元,當中不計2019因澳洲零售業務商譽減值63.81億元(非現金項目)香港仍是盈利最大來源,佔61%,期內香港電力業務盈利升4.6%。不過,期內售電量按年1.2%在疫情下,工商業售電量下降,但住宅銷電量卻升近一成,因宅在效應。整體在港電力銷收入仍升3%,反映香港電力業務有防守性。

沙盤推演下,由於香港疫情持續,下半年售電量仍有跌勢,但收入穩定。

至於佔營運盈利盈利近兩成的澳洲業務,近期左右了集盈利高低如果撇除4.12億元公平值變動,上半年當地營運盈利為7.82億元,較198.24億元,跌5%。中電解釋,客戶數目減少及澳洲山火令能源採購成本上升等因素拖累

其實中電的海外業務一直拖後腿,以上半年為例,印度市場盈利跌一成。展望下半年,澳洲業務的表現能見度仍低。集團表示,在疫情持續下Energy Australia 將繼續面對具挑戰性市場狀況。未來利潤水平,好視乎零售競爭的激烈程度等因素,而批發市場的遠期價格續跌,亦將對能源業務的利潤帶來壓力。

此,基於上半年澳利好利淡因素交錯,盈利仍微跌中,所以推算下半年盈利仍波動。

2.中電港燈股息率高企

,至於港燈中期稅後盈利4%10.27億元,即使期內加電費,但售電量跌4%,主要受疫情影響。因此料下半年本地疫情未必即時退卻,料港燈業務狀況與上半年相若,而分派水平亦不變。

值得注意的是令市場欣喜的是港燈上半年可供分派收入不變,每股份合訂單位15.94港仙未有因應疫情而削派息。811日收市價計算8.01元計算,股息收益率近4%

至於中電的股息率更達4.1%。有關回報水平對比起全球量寬下,低息甚或負息環境,更顯出是異數使強如10年期美國國庫債券息率亦屢創新低,債息近期更低見0.5%,令本地兩隻電力股股息回報更為吸引。

投資結語

括而言,投資上述兩者股份風險較低,除了因本地電力需求穩定外,最重要是兩電與港府簽定新利潤保證協議,成為兩電救命草2033年前准許回報為8%,但當然兩間公司要持續投資,但回報卻已有墊底。對投資者而言,持有兩股不會出現賺息蝕價,兩隻股股價波動不大,對好息一族而言是好選擇。

未來港燈派息增長空間不大,較適合保守型散戶,而中電受制於海外市場波動,不過如果情況好轉,不單對股價提振未來股息增長空間更大,可獲「財息兼收」之效。

延伸閱讀

本文所提供的信息僅供一般參考之用,並不構成任何個人化的投資勸誘或建議。作者 Cyrus Li 沒持有以上提及的股票。

The Motley Fool Hong Kong Limited(www.fool.hk) 2020

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