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鋼鐵股已到了撈底買入的時候?

鋼鐵行業多年來都存在產能過剩的問題,鞍鋼發出了盈利警告,但鋼鐵價格在漲,撈底時候到了沒有? –

鋼鐵行業多年來都存在產能過剩的問題,香港上市的鞍山鋼鐵 (SEHK: 347) 和馬鞍山鋼鐵 (SEHK: 323),除了2016至2017年間跑嬴大市以外,基本上每年都跑輸恒生指數。作為中國其中一個最古老行業,也是不少行業,例如汽車及基建不能缺少的材料。鋼鐵企業到底還有沒有投資價值?要了解鋼鐵行業的話,到底要留意那些數據?

鋼鐵行業透明度相度高

鋼鐵行業的數據是很透明的,要了解行業狀況,可以由生產過程說起。一般來說,每生產一噸生鐵(pig iron),大約需要1.6噸鐵礦 (iron ore)原料。再加上450公斤焦炭 (coke coal) 投進高爐熔煉,把礦石還原成生鐵。要留意的是煉鐵爐是不能隨意停止運行,即使不景氣,賠本也要繼續生產,最多也只能減慢生產量以減少營運成本。鋼鐵產品主要分為熱軋製(hot rolling) 及冷軋製(cold rolling)。前者廣泛用於工業生產及建築,而後者用於强度要求較高的產品上。

自4月份疫情高峰後,雖然未見有大型基建刺激,但因為由汽車,電梯及重型貨車的生產需求帶動,5月至6月份的鋼鐵需求量亦有所回升。加上去年巴西淡水河谷礦難事故令全球鐵礦供應受到嚴重影響,中國入口鐵礦到岸價,由2018年美元80元/噸以下的價格,暴升到2019年的超過美元120 /噸,又暴跌回美元80 /噸水平。今年由於供求仍然失衡,最近又再次跳升回接近美元120 /噸。

由於成本帶動,中國的熱軋製鋼鐵價錢,亦升至近人民幣4000元/噸水平價格。但其實5、6月份是傳統鋼鐵行業的淡季。鞍鋼在7月中旬,跟很多上市公司一樣,也發出了盈利警告,預期中期淨利潤下降。這也是預計之中,但那是否代表鋼鐵企業下半年仍然困難?

留意鐵礦焦炭庫存量

投資者可以留意國內鐵礦及焦炭的庫存量,由於現在庫存仍處於低水平,所以下半年冶鐵成本亦難見大幅度回落。相反,熱軋製鋼的庫存量仍然較過去幾年同期稍高,除非基建,房地產及汽車等行業對鋼鐵需求大幅飆升,消化所有庫存。 相信要等下半,甚至明年初,庫存量回較理想水平時,鋼鐵企業的盈利才能提升至吸引水平。

延伸閱讀

本文所提供的信息僅供一般參考之用,並不構成任何個人化的投資勸誘或建議。作者Loonie Yen沒持有以上提及的股票。

The Motley Fool Hong Kong Limited(www.fool.hk) 2020

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