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體育股李寧創新高仍要買?

中國市場領先品牌李寧(SEHK:2331)股價績後連創新高,值得投資嗎? –

疫情重挫全球經濟,中國政府提出「內循環」推動經濟復甦,內需再度擴張為零售品牌帶來增長憧憬,中國市場領先品牌——李寧(SEHK2331)公布2020上半年業績,表現如何?值得投資嗎?

疫情重挫增長表現

新冠肺炎疫情為實體零售渠道帶來沉重打擊,零售品牌表現普遍受挫。李寧的業務增長表現在上半年明顯倒退,期內整體零售流水錄得10%-20%跌幅,相比去年同20%-30%增長。銷售表現不振,李寧收入按年減少1%62億元(人民幣·下同),跌幅表面上輕微,但相比起去年同期的33%增速,今年上半年表現相當失色。期內毛利率更較去年同期下跌0.2個百分點至49.5%,反映疫情中促銷活動及折扣增加所帶來的負面影響。

不過,集團的營運效能持續提升,期內經營利潤仍有逾30%增長,撇除其他收益影響仍有約16%同比增幅。這可歸因於期內租金相關開支及行政開支有所減少。

銷售渠道模式增變

李寧在期內的直接經營銷售佔比按年減少6.5個百分點至21.6%銷售予特許經銷商的佔比則輕微提1.7個百分點至50.3%電子商務渠道收入按年增加逾20%銷售佔比增加5.3個百分點至27%。這反映出疫市重挫實體銷售渠道表現,集團自營的銷售網絡受影響,而流失的銷售額部分由電商渠道來填補。

值得提防的一點是,雖然特許經銷商的貢獻受疫市影響微,但已銷售予特許經銷商的商品銷情不會反映在李寧業績之上。參考李寧自營銷售網絡的表現,特許經銷商的實際銷情恐怕亦難有理想表現,影響或會反映在往後的訂單表現之上。

結語:長線前景依然明朗

雖然疫市中李寧的銷售增長力有所衰退,但內需擴張及升級趨勢有望在「內循環」方向下重振,加上中美關係緊張或有利中資品牌搶奪份額,李寧作為中國市場的領先體育用品品牌,疫後復甦的確定性高。此外,期內集團在電商渠道持續取得進展,有望受惠於中國消費市場線上化的大趨勢。

延伸閱讀

本文所提供的信息僅供一般參考之用,並不構成任何個人化的投資勸誘或建議。作者 Alvin Yu 沒持有以上提及的股票。

The Motley Fool Hong Kong Limited(www.fool.hk) 2020

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