Insights

Could Tesla deliveries surge 70% next year?

If you thought 2020 was big for Tesla, just consider how 2021 might look.
The post Could Tesla deliveries surge 70% next year? appeared first on Motley Fool Australia. –

This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.

Electric vehicle production at Tesla's factory in Fremont, California.

This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.

Though there’s still more than two months left to 2020, that hasn’t stopped Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) analysts from trying to start making estimates on the electric-car maker’s potential growth in 2021. During the company’s third-quarter earnings call last week, an analyst took a stab at getting CEO Elon Musk to talk about vehicle delivery expectations for next year – and he succeeded.

As it turns out, Tesla may be positioned for massive growth in vehicle deliveries in 2021 – and the automaker has the installed production capacity to back it up.

Tesla deliveries may skyrocket

After explaining how he arrived at his estimate, New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu he believed Tesla could deliver between 840,000 to one million cars in 2021 – up from the projected 500,000 units the company is expected to deliver this year.

When asked whether he was on the right track, Musk responded saying, “I mean, it’s in that vicinity. Yes. You’re not far off.”

To put this potential growth into perspective, consider it in percentage terms compared to the 500,000 vehicles Tesla is aiming to deliver this year. Growing deliveries from 500,000 in 2020 to 850,000 in 2021 implies 70% year over year growth. One million deliveries next year, of course, would translate to 100% growth (again assuming Tesla delivers 500,000 vehicles in 2020.

How Tesla’s deliveries could grow 70%

But are these realistic expectations?

There’s actually a rational case for this analyst’s projections. As the analyst pointed out when explaining the reasoning for his forecast, the automaker has already installed enough production capacity to produce nearly 850,000 cars per year.

Tesla broke down this capacity in its third-quarter shareholder letter. The company’s production lines at its Fremont, California factory can produce 90,0000 combined Model S and X units per year and 500,000 combined Model 3 and Y units. Tesla’s new Shanghai factory has the capacity for 250,000 Model 3 vehicles annually.

Meanwhile, Tesla’s Model Y factories in both Berlin, Germany and Austin, Texas are both under construction. In addition, the company is building a production line for Model Y in Shanghai. Given Tesla’s recent accelerated pace at bringing factories and new production lines online, it wouldn’t be surprising to see production at these factories begin in meaningful volumes next year.

While Tesla could run into some unexpected detours, the company’s recent execution and its expansion plans suggest Tesla will likely see accelerated growth next year.

This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.

Man who said buy Kogan shares at $3.63 says buy these 3 ASX stocks now

When investing expert Scott Phillips has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Motley Fool Share Advisor newsletter he has run for more than eight years has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.*

In this FREE STOCK REPORT, Scott just revealed what he believes are the 3 ASX stocks for the post COVID world that investors should buy right now while they still can. These stocks are trading at dirt-cheap prices and Scott thinks these could really go gangbusters as we move into ‘the new normal’.

Find out the names of our 3 Post COVID Stocks – For FREE!

*Returns as of 6/8/2020

More reading

Daniel Sparks has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of and recommends Tesla. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The post Could Tesla deliveries surge 70% next year? appeared first on Motley Fool Australia.

This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.

Trade The World Anywhere & Anytime!

Mobile app platform with over 50,000 global listed securities across 12 markets (over 70% global market capitalisation), right from your Android or iOS device.

Integrated with exclusive trading idea and investment analysis tools to help you find actionable insight on virtually every financial instrument across our 12 global markets, to help you optimise your trading strategies.

Refer Your Friends

Tell your friends about Monex and gift them FREE access to our trading tools.

We respect your privacy and will only send this one email notification to your friends. 

Share With Your Friends

Share on facebook
Share on twitter
Share on linkedin

Monex Trading Tools Access and Usage Terms

The Monex Trading Tools (referred to as ‘tools’ hereafter) are available to you inside your client portal;


To activate access to the tools, you must have a verified and approved trading account and have made a deposit of at least AUD $1000.


An active and funded account with a positive trading balance is required to continue to have access to the tools;


Although the tools are available to you indefinitely, Monex Securities may at it’s discretion disable access to the tools in the future;


Monex securities reserves the right to change these terms and conditions from time to time, as it sees fit, without notice.

Important Notice
iOS & Android App - 12 International Markets & Over 70% Global Market Cap. $0 Brokerage On US Trades. Click Here!