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Top broker tips Newcrest (ASX:NCM) share price to have a golden 12 months

This gold miner’s shares have been rated as a buy…
The post Top broker tips Newcrest (ASX:NCM) share price to have a golden 12 months appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia. –

The Newcrest Mining Ltd (ASX: NCM) share price was a positive performer on Monday.

The gold miner’s shares rose 1.5% to end the day at $25.08.

However, despite this gain, the Newcrest share price is still down 24% over the last 12 months.

Why did the Newcrest share price push higher?

Investors may have been bidding the Newcrest share price higher after analysts at Goldman Sachs responded positively to its full year results release from last week.

According to the note, the broker has retained its buy rating but trimmed its price target on the company’s shares to $33.00.

Based on the current Newcrest share price, this implies potential upside of 31.5% over the next 12 months.

What did the broker say?

Goldman Sachs was pleased with Newcrest’s better than expected performance in FY 2021.

It commented: “NCM’s FY21 result was ahead of our expectations; EBITDA of US$2,443mn was +4%/+5% ahead of GSe/VisibleAlpha consensus respectively, driven largely by non-cash other income items.”

“Underlying NPAT of US$1,164mn was +1%/+4%. FCF of A$1,104mn was ahead of our expectations (+15%) after favourable 2H working capital movements and lower cash tax payments than expected. Net cash of US$176mn was therefore better than our expectations and also consensus.”

“The strong FCF, as well as an increase in payout ratio (41% of FY21 FCF), resulted in an upsized final dividend of US40cps (fully-franked), well ahead of our forecast, however in-line with policy of 30-60% for the full year,” it added.

Guidance disappoints but valuation remains attractive

One slight negative, though, was its guidance for FY 2022. Unlike its result in FY 2021, this was below its expectations.

Goldman said: “FY22 guidance was softer than our expectations, particularly driven by higher than expected AISC at key assets and higher capex. Gold and copper production were in-line with our prior estimates at the group level, however Lihir’s outlook was ~10-20% below our prior forecasts, offset by stronger production expectations at Telfer.”

Nevertheless, the broker still see a lot of value in the Newcrest share price. As a result, it has retained its buy rating, noting its “compelling valuation discount (0.76xNAV), attractive growth pipeline, and increasing copper earnings.”

So, while the last 12 months have been disappointing, Goldman appears confident the next 12 months will be much more positive for the Newcrest share price.

The post Top broker tips Newcrest (ASX:NCM) share price to have a golden 12 months appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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More reading

ASX 200 Weekly Wrap: Miners drag ASX back to earth

5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Monday

The Newcrest (ASX:NCM) dividend boosted 129%
5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Friday

Newcrest Mining (ASX:NCM) share price on watch as profit jumps 55%

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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