Insights

What does the future hold for Treasury Wine (ASX:TWE) after China’s tariffs?

The Treasury Wine share price has been on a volatile ride after China’s trade tariffs. We look at how the company has responded.
The post What does the future hold for Treasury Wine (ASX:TWE) after China’s tariffs? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia. –

note pad with the words 'what's next' written on it representing uncertainty surrounding mcmillan share price

The proposal by Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (ASX: TWE) to spin off its Penfolds business was put on hold recently to allow the company to focus on responding to China’s trade tariffs and the ongoing anti-dumping probe by China into imports of Australian wine.

As tensions between Australia and China escalated, Treasury Wines responded to the tariffs at the end of November. The Treasury Wine share price then tumbled to a near 5-year low, trading at $8.40 as of 1 December.

Response to trade tariffs

 Treasury Wine’s response plan included the following key items:

  • reallocation of Penfolds Bin and Icon range from China – which represent 25% of the company’s annual global Penfolds allocation volumes – to other key luxury growth markets including Asian markets outside of China, Australia, the US and the Europe.
  • reallocation of luxury grape sourcing to other premium Australian portfolio brands, which have been significantly
    supply constrained over recent years.
  • acceleration of its multi-country of origin portfolio growth strategy, with a focus on growing sourcing from its existing asset base in France and potentially from China.

In the week or so following the release of its response, the Treasury Wine share price has risen by 9.5% to $9.20.

International support 

More than 200 parliamentarians from 19 countries have formed an alliance called the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China Policy (IPAC). This is led by global legislators who are senior politicians aiming to maintain a free, open and rules-based international trade order.

The alliance recently demonstrated its support for the Australian wine industry in response to this wave of Australia–China trade tension, via a global campaign calling for people to drink Australian red wine in December.

Treasury to diversify away from China

A research report out of Bell Potter estimated that the tariffs from China will impact Treasury Wine’s earnings in the near term, and thus the broker lowered the company’s target share price to $8.20.

In response to the collapse in demand, Treasury CEO Tim Ford said “We are moving on with a plan…to build the markets outside of China, and that’s what we’ll continue to do.”

Bank of America analyst David Errington also noted that Treasury Wine will now be focusing on other markets, stating: “Treasury Wine will most likely divert about 1.5 million cases a year from China to other markets by 2023, and China’s earnings contribution to the company would almost halve by then.”

About the Treasury Wine share price

The Treasury Wine share price currently sits at $9.20 as of 9 December, up 9.4% from its 1 December low. Treasury Wine shares are down 43% in the year to date, leaving the company with a market capitalisation of $6.67 billion.

Where to invest $1,000 right now

When investing expert Scott Phillips has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Motley Fool Share Advisor newsletter he has run for more than eight years has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.*

Scott just revealed what he believes are the five best ASX stocks for investors to buy right now. These stocks are trading at dirt-cheap prices and Scott thinks they are great buys right now.

See The 5 Stocks

*Returns as of June 30th

More reading

Motley Fool contributor MWUaus has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of and has recommended Treasury Wine Estates Limited. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

The post What does the future hold for Treasury Wine (ASX:TWE) after China’s tariffs? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Trade The World Anywhere & Anytime!

Mobile app platform with over 50,000 global listed securities across 12 markets (over 70% global market capitalisation), right from your Android or iOS device.

Integrated with exclusive trading idea and investment analysis tools to help you find actionable insight on virtually every financial instrument across our 12 global markets, to help you optimise your trading strategies.

Refer Your Friends

Tell your friends about Monex and gift them FREE access to our trading tools.

We respect your privacy and will only send this one email notification to your friends. 

Share With Your Friends

Share on facebook
Share on twitter
Share on linkedin

Monex Trading Tools Access and Usage Terms

The Monex Trading Tools (referred to as ‘tools’ hereafter) are available to you inside your client portal;


To activate access to the tools, you must have a verified and approved trading account and have made a deposit of at least AUD $1000.


An active and funded account with a positive trading balance is required to continue to have access to the tools;


Although the tools are available to you indefinitely, Monex Securities may at it’s discretion disable access to the tools in the future;


Monex securities reserves the right to change these terms and conditions from time to time, as it sees fit, without notice.

Important Notice
iOS & Android App - 12 International Markets & Over 70% Global Market Cap. $0 Brokerage On US Trades. Click Here!