Webinar 3: Navigating the US markets, live from Chicago

20 May 2019  |  EDUCATION

S&P 500 Overview: Downside risk increasing amid trade tensions

  • Bears may try to break 2800 level as index fails at 50-day MA
  • Internals, including sector performance, increasing show “risk-off” sentiment
  • Few positive catalysts on horizon now that earnings have passed, summer coming
  • “Sell in May, go away” failed in 2017 & 2018. True in 2019?


Sector Review: China impact felt far and wide

  • Semiconductors hammered by smart phone, 5G worries
  • Materials hammered by weaker Chinese commodity demand
  • Industrials hurt by export, supply-chain impacts
  • Financials hurt by lower rates
  • Retailers hurt by supply-chain worries


Greenback on watch

  • U.S. dollar index making higher highs & lows, in tight range
  • German Zew misses, Bundesbank cuts estimates
  • Chinese industrial, retail data misses
  • Russia GDP misses, Brazilian worries rising
  • China allocation to emerging market indexes just raised by MSCI


Idea to consider: Home Depot (HD)

  • Earnings due Tuesday
  • Government retail sales data shows gains in building material stores
  • Employment data shows gains in construction workers
  • U.S. housing sector showing improvement (housing starts/permits strong last week)
  • Holding $190 area from February


Idea to consider: Five Below (FIVE)

  • Midcap discount retailer in store-opening growth mode
  • Strong comps despite weak shopping center traffic
  • Strong earnings history
  • Goldman Sachs favorite
  • Targets improving lower-end of income scale

Full Recap Below:

Risk Disclaimer: The information above is of general nature only and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or investment needs. Prior to you make an investment decision, please make sure you carefully read and fully understand our Financial Services Guide, Terms and Conditions, Privacy Policy and other relevant documents that you can obtain from this website. Monex Securities Australia Pty Ltd (AFSL No. 363972; ABN 84 142 210 179) is the Financial services provider. Financial products trading carries risks and may not be suitable for all investors. You are strongly recommended to seek independent financial advice before making any investment decisions.

Home Depot, Five Below, ,

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