Insights

Webinar 3: Navigating the US markets, live from Chicago

21 May 2019  |  EDUCATION

S&P 500 Overview: Downside risk increasing amid trade tensions

  • Bears may try to break 2800 level as index fails at 50-day MA
  • Internals, including sector performance, increasing show “risk-off” sentiment
  • Few positive catalysts on horizon now that earnings have passed, summer coming
  • “Sell in May, go away” failed in 2017 & 2018. True in 2019?

 

Sector Review: China impact felt far and wide

  • Semiconductors hammered by smart phone, 5G worries
  • Materials hammered by weaker Chinese commodity demand
  • Industrials hurt by export, supply-chain impacts
  • Financials hurt by lower rates
  • Retailers hurt by supply-chain worries

 

Greenback on watch

  • U.S. dollar index making higher highs & lows, in tight range
  • German Zew misses, Bundesbank cuts estimates
  • Chinese industrial, retail data misses
  • Russia GDP misses, Brazilian worries rising
  • China allocation to emerging market indexes just raised by MSCI

 

Idea to consider: Home Depot (HD)

  • Earnings due Tuesday
  • Government retail sales data shows gains in building material stores
  • Employment data shows gains in construction workers
  • U.S. housing sector showing improvement (housing starts/permits strong last week)
  • Holding $190 area from February

 

Idea to consider: Five Below (FIVE)

  • Midcap discount retailer in store-opening growth mode
  • Strong comps despite weak shopping center traffic
  • Strong earnings history
  • Goldman Sachs favorite
  • Targets improving lower-end of income scale


Full Recap Below:


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