市场见解

Can Treasury Wine (ASX:TWE) ever fill the hole left by Chinese exports?

What’s happening in China for this wine company?
The post Can Treasury Wine (ASX:TWE) ever fill the hole left by Chinese exports? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia. –

It has been a difficult couple of years for the Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (ASX: TWE) share price.

Although the wine company’s shares are up a sizeable 23% in 2021, they are still down approximately 37% over the last two years.

Why is the Treasury Wine share price down 37% in two years?

The main cause of the Treasury Wine share price weakness over the last couple of years has been its exit from the China market.

The wine giant was effectively kicked out of the country after Chinese regulators slapped significant duties on its wine following anti-dumping and countervailing investigations into certain Australian wine exports into China.

China’s Ministry of Commerce put a duty rate of 175.6% on Treasury Wine’s Australian country of origin wine in containers of two litres or less imported into China. This essentially means that a $50 bottle of wine would now cost $137.80 after duties have been applied.

Given how lucrative the China market was for the company, this created a huge gap in its earnings and unsurprisingly put significant pressure on the Treasury Wine share price.

Can Treasury Wine fill the gap?

According to a note out of Citi, its analysts are optimistic on the company’s future and note that management is working hard to fill the Chinese earnings gap.

This includes the Penfolds brand shifting its strategy from Australian wine to French wine. This will see the company aim to launch its tariff-less French collection in China mid to late 2022.

Citi also commented: “The focus of this week’s virtual analyst event with Penfolds Managing Director and Group CFO was on the i) China strategy following the import tariffs, ii) Penfolds ability to restrict wine supply from Asian markets ending up in China through grey channels, and iii) distribution opportunities outside China.”

“We rate Treasury a Buy. We see the recent Frank Family Vineyards acquisition providing i) a significant distribution growth opportunity, ii) the scope to expand its market share in the luxury wine category, and iii) assistance to reach its 25% margin target, combined with the recent share price decline,” it added.

Citi has a $13.80 target on the Treasury Wine share price. This implies potential upside of 17% for investors.

The post Can Treasury Wine (ASX:TWE) ever fill the hole left by Chinese exports? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Should you invest $1,000 in Treasury Wine right now?

Before you consider Treasury Wine, you’ll want to hear this.

Motley Fool Investing expert Scott Phillips just revealed what he believes are the 5 best stocks for investors to buy right now… and Treasury Wine wasn’t one of them.

The online investing service he’s run for nearly a decade, Motley Fool Share Advisor, has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.* And right now, Scott thinks there are 5 stocks that are better buys.

*Returns as of August 16th 2021

More reading

Brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy today

Morgans rates these ASX 200 shares as buys

Cheers! Morgans tips Treasury Wine (ASX:TWE) share price to rise 19%

Top brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy next week

The Treasury Wine (ASX:TWE) share price popped some corks to a new 5-week high today

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Treasury Wine Estates Limited. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

随时随地,交易世界!

移动APP平台,拥有 12 个市场的 50,000 多种全球上市证券(全球市值超过 70%),直接在您的 Android 或 iOS 设备上即可操作。

与独有的交易理念和投资分析工具相结合,帮助您在我们 12 个全球市场中的几乎所有金融工具上找到可操作的见解,从而帮助您优化交易策略。

推荐给您的朋友

向您的朋友推荐Monex并赠予他们免费使用我们交易工具的机会

我们尊重您的隐私,只会向您的朋友发送一封邮件 

与您的朋友分享

Share on facebook
Share on twitter
Share on linkedin

Monex Trading Tools Access and Usage Terms

The Monex Trading Tools (referred to as ‘tools’ hereafter) are available to you inside your client portal;


To activate access to the tools, you must have a verified and approved trading account and have made a deposit of at least AUD $1000.


An active and funded account with a positive trading balance is required to continue to have access to the tools;


Although the tools are available to you indefinitely, Monex Securities may at it’s discretion disable access to the tools in the future;


Monex securities reserves the right to change these terms and conditions from time to time, as it sees fit, without notice.

Important Notice
iOS & Android App - 12 International Markets & Over 70% Global Market Cap. $0 Brokerage On US Trades. Click Here!