市场见解

CBA (ASX:CBA) says interest rates could jump as early as next year

CBA’s latest rates forecast makes markets interesting…
The post CBA (ASX:CBA) says interest rates could jump as early as next year appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia. –

The 银行及金融 - 澳洲联邦银行 (ASX: CBA) is the latest of the big four banks to bring forward its estimates for the Reserve Bank of Australia’s first interest rate hike.

While Australia’s biggest bank isn’t the first to shift its estimates, its expectation is the earliest of the bunch.

CBA forecasts higher rates sooner, ASX dips

Head of Australian economics at Commonwealth Bank, Mr Gareth Aird has made known the bank’s latest interest rate prediction.

According to Aird, the RBA’s first rate rise in more than 11 years could occur as early as November next year.

In a note, Mr Aird explained how the CBA sees interest rate increases unfurling:

We have pencilled in an increase of 15 basis points, which would take the cash rate to 0.25 per cent. We expect that to be followed by an increase of 25 basis points in December 2022. We have three further 25-basis-point hikes in the first, second and third quarters of 2023.

Furthermore, today’s forecast is the earliest of those made by Australia and New Zealand Banking GrpLtd (ASX: ANZ) and 西太银行 (ASX: WBC). Potentially shocking the ASX share market. The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is trading 0.37% lower to 7,315.4 points, at the time of writing.

Earlier in the month, ANZ moved its rate increase forecast to the second half of 2023, with the potential of being earlier if the trend of rapid economic improvement continues.

Likewise, Westpac brought forward its estimates to the first quarter of 2023 earlier this week. The move followed the May employment report, which was described as a ‘game changer’ by Westpac’s Chief Economist, Bill Evans.

Crystal-balling the future

Attempting to peer into the future, ASX-listed CBA also forecasts that once the RBA cash rate hits 1.25%, it will be at a neutral level. Essentially that means CBA deems 1.25% the likely rate for an economic environment at equilibrium.

There are situations where Mr Aird could see the RBA hiking rates even earlier than November next year. Such a case would be if wage growth becomes irrefutably on a path to 3% per annum.

The post CBA (ASX:CBA) says interest rates could jump as early as next year appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Wondering where you should invest $1,000 right now?

When investing expert Scott Phillips has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Motley Fool Share Advisor newsletter he has run for more than eight years has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.*

Scott just revealed what he believes could be the five best ASX stocks for investors to buy right now. These stocks are trading at near dirt-cheap prices and Scott thinks they could be great buys right now.

*Returns as of May 24th 2021

More reading

Why are Soul Patts (ASX:SOL) shares surging 9% today?
Why the number of Aussie millionaires is skyrocketing

ASX 200 down 0.5%: Costa’s acquisition, Afterpay & Zip charge higher

Sky Network (ASX:SKT) share price flies following NRL partnership
5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Wednesday

Motley Fool contributor Mitchell Lawler owns shares of Commonwealth Bank of Australia. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

随时随地,交易世界!

移动APP平台,拥有 12 个市场的 50,000 多种全球上市证券(全球市值超过 70%),直接在您的 Android 或 iOS 设备上即可操作。

与独有的交易理念和投资分析工具相结合,帮助您在我们 12 个全球市场中的几乎所有金融工具上找到可操作的见解,从而帮助您优化交易策略。

推荐给您的朋友

向您的朋友推荐Monex并赠予他们免费使用我们交易工具的机会

我们尊重您的隐私,只会向您的朋友发送一封邮件 

与您的朋友分享

Share on facebook
Share on twitter
Share on linkedin

Monex Trading Tools Access and Usage Terms

The Monex Trading Tools (referred to as ‘tools’ hereafter) are available to you inside your client portal;


To activate access to the tools, you must have a verified and approved trading account and have made a deposit of at least AUD $1000.


An active and funded account with a positive trading balance is required to continue to have access to the tools;


Although the tools are available to you indefinitely, Monex Securities may at it’s discretion disable access to the tools in the future;


Monex securities reserves the right to change these terms and conditions from time to time, as it sees fit, without notice.

Important Notice
iOS & Android App - 12 International Markets & Over 70% Global Market Cap. $0 Brokerage On US Trades. Click Here!